Application of Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Model to Selected Coastal Areas of Turkey

ÖZYURT, G. and ERGÍN, A., 2009. Application of Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Model to Selected Coastal Areas of Turkey. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 56 (Proceedings of the 10th International Coastal Symposium), 248 – 251. Lisbon, Portugal, ISSN 0749-0258 Climate change and anticipated impacts of sea level rise such as increased coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and salt water intrusion to freshwater resources will affect all countries but mostly small island countries of oceans and low-lying lands along coastlines. Turkey having 8333 km of coastline including physically, ecologically and socio-economically important low-lying deltas should also prepare for the impacts of sea level rise as well as other impacts of climate change while participating in mitigation efforts. Thus, a coastal vulnerability assessment of Turkey to sea level rise is needed both as a part of coastal zone management policies for sustainable development and as a guideline for resource allocation for preparation of adaptation options for upcoming problems due to sea level rise. As a scientific approach to coastal vulnerability assessment a coastal vulnerability matrix and a corresponding coastal vulnerability index of a region to sea level rise are developed. In the development of the matrix and the index, indicators of impacts of sea level rise which use commonly available data are used. The developed coastal vulnerability assessment model is used to determine the vulnerability of three different coastal areas of Turkey; Göksu Delta (Specially Protected Area), Göcek (Specially Protected Area) and Amasra to present the sensitivity of the model to regional properties. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Coastal Zone Management INTRODUCTION Coastal areas are the vital locations for the communities throughout the history due to vast amount of resources available for survival and development. It is estimated that 50% of world’s population will live within 100 km of the coast by 2030 and population densities in coastal areas are three times the global mean(SMALL and NICHOLLS, 2003). Anticipated impacts of global warming and climate change will alter many of the systems including coastal ecosystem and population which will also be affected by sea level rise. The impacts of sea level rise will be most profound on the small islands of the oceans and the lowlying coastal areas around the world (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Staff, 2001). Turkey, having 8333 km of coastline is also under threat. Although sea level rise on coastal areas of Turkey is not expected to be as high as the oceans, there will be consequences especially on low-lying areas and estuaries, which are also Turkey’s most productive agricultural areas, urban centers and tourism zones. Thus, a vulnerability assessment of coastal areas of Turkey to sea level rise is needed both as a part of coastal zone management policies for sustainable development and as a guideline for resource allocation for preparation of adaptation options for the upcoming problems due to sea level rise. There are many different levels of vulnerability assessments which can be classified as strictly quantitative to semiquantitative, non-adaptive to perfectly adaptive, science-driven to policy driven, simplistic to sophisticated, etc. (FÜSSEL and KLEİN, 2006). Each assessment needs data with different levels of detail and accuracy. In Turkey, one of the main limitations of a vulnerability assessment, most probably, will be due to the lack of data for a particular region. Most of the available data belongs to major urban centers or there exists no data at all on some of the parameters. Thus in this study, a coastal vulnerability matrix and a corresponding coastal vulnerability index – CVI (SLR) of a region to sea level rise using indicators of impacts of sea level rise which use commonly available data are developed. The results of the matrix and the index enable decision makers to compare and rank different regions according to their vulnerabilities to sea level rise, to prioritize impacts of sea level rise on the region according to the vulnerability of the region to each impact and to determine the most vulnerable parameters for planning of adaptation measures to sea level rise (ÖZYURT, 2007). The developed model is used to determine the vulnerability of three different coastal areas of Turkey; Göksu, Göcek and Amasra, to present the local effect on the impacts of sea level rise and how the model presents these differences successfully. METHODOLOGY In order to develop a method of coastal vulnerability assessment to sea level rise using indicators for both physical and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; first, the physical impacts were studied. The physical impacts of sea level rise on coastal areas included in this study are;